{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "%matplotlib notebook\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import numpy as np"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>P</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-24</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-25</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-26</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-27</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-28</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-29</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-30</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-31</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-32</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Dec</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Feb</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Jan</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Jul</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Jun</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Mar</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_May</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Nov</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Oct</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Sep</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Fecha_hora</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2016-08-09 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>95.3264</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.8461</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.1982</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.7123</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.2995</td>\n",
       "      <td>42.9422</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.3551</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.3440</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.6826</td>\n",
       "      <td>42.6676</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2016-08-09 01:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>82.8532</td>\n",
       "      <td>52.2179</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.8461</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.1982</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.7123</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.2995</td>\n",
       "      <td>42.9422</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.3551</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.3440</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.6826</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2016-08-09 02:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>57.9764</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.9198</td>\n",
       "      <td>52.2179</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.8461</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.1982</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.7123</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.2995</td>\n",
       "      <td>42.9422</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.3551</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.3440</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2016-08-09 03:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>67.6407</td>\n",
       "      <td>36.8105</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.9198</td>\n",
       "      <td>52.2179</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.8461</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.1982</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.7123</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.2995</td>\n",
       "      <td>42.9422</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.3551</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2016-08-09 04:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>66.4892</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.8274</td>\n",
       "      <td>36.8105</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.9198</td>\n",
       "      <td>52.2179</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.8461</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.1982</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.7123</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.2995</td>\n",
       "      <td>42.9422</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>5 rows × 70 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                           P    Ph-24    Ph-25    Ph-26    Ph-27    Ph-28  \\\n",
       "Fecha_hora                                                                  \n",
       "2016-08-09 00:00:00  95.3264  54.8461  45.1982  44.7123  46.2995  42.9422   \n",
       "2016-08-09 01:00:00  82.8532  52.2179  54.8461  45.1982  44.7123  46.2995   \n",
       "2016-08-09 02:00:00  57.9764  61.9198  52.2179  54.8461  45.1982  44.7123   \n",
       "2016-08-09 03:00:00  67.6407  36.8105  61.9198  52.2179  54.8461  45.1982   \n",
       "2016-08-09 04:00:00  66.4892  34.8274  36.8105  61.9198  52.2179  54.8461   \n",
       "\n",
       "                       Ph-29    Ph-30    Ph-31    Ph-32    ...      month_Dec  \\\n",
       "Fecha_hora                                                 ...                  \n",
       "2016-08-09 00:00:00  44.3551  46.3440  45.6826  42.6676    ...              0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 01:00:00  42.9422  44.3551  46.3440  45.6826    ...              0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 02:00:00  46.2995  42.9422  44.3551  46.3440    ...              0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 03:00:00  44.7123  46.2995  42.9422  44.3551    ...              0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 04:00:00  45.1982  44.7123  46.2995  42.9422    ...              0   \n",
       "\n",
       "                     month_Feb  month_Jan  month_Jul  month_Jun  month_Mar  \\\n",
       "Fecha_hora                                                                   \n",
       "2016-08-09 00:00:00          0          0          0          0          0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 01:00:00          0          0          0          0          0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 02:00:00          0          0          0          0          0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 03:00:00          0          0          0          0          0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 04:00:00          0          0          0          0          0   \n",
       "\n",
       "                     month_May  month_Nov  month_Oct  month_Sep  \n",
       "Fecha_hora                                                       \n",
       "2016-08-09 00:00:00          0          0          0          0  \n",
       "2016-08-09 01:00:00          0          0          0          0  \n",
       "2016-08-09 02:00:00          0          0          0          0  \n",
       "2016-08-09 03:00:00          0          0          0          0  \n",
       "2016-08-09 04:00:00          0          0          0          0  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 70 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 2,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "fname = \"lbrprices_transformed.csv\"\n",
    "prices = pd.read_csv(fname, index_col=\"Fecha_hora\")\n",
    "prices.head(5)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>P</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-24</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-25</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-26</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-27</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-28</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-29</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-30</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-31</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-32</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Dec</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Feb</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Jan</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Jul</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Jun</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Mar</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_May</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Nov</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Oct</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Sep</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>count</th>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>20520.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>mean</th>\n",
       "      <td>72.093873</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.053371</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.051262</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.048388</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.043583</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.039969</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.035831</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.032904</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.029738</td>\n",
       "      <td>72.025476</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.085380</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.065497</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.072515</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.072515</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070175</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.072515</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.072515</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.105263</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.108772</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.105263</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>std</th>\n",
       "      <td>34.183615</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.176714</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.177036</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.176854</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.173544</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.172700</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.170911</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.170539</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.169971</td>\n",
       "      <td>34.168179</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.279453</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.247407</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.259344</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.259344</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.255449</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.259344</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.259344</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.306900</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.311360</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.306900</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>min</th>\n",
       "      <td>18.704900</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.704900</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.704900</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.704900</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.704900</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.704900</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.704900</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.704900</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.704900</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.704900</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>25%</th>\n",
       "      <td>48.164400</td>\n",
       "      <td>48.156475</td>\n",
       "      <td>48.154175</td>\n",
       "      <td>48.152250</td>\n",
       "      <td>48.147300</td>\n",
       "      <td>48.145375</td>\n",
       "      <td>48.140500</td>\n",
       "      <td>48.134600</td>\n",
       "      <td>48.132500</td>\n",
       "      <td>48.130500</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>50%</th>\n",
       "      <td>65.084300</td>\n",
       "      <td>65.010100</td>\n",
       "      <td>65.008500</td>\n",
       "      <td>65.007250</td>\n",
       "      <td>65.002250</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.996600</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.995100</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.993600</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.989550</td>\n",
       "      <td>64.985950</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>75%</th>\n",
       "      <td>88.620925</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.541800</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.541800</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.531450</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.526450</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.521425</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.517825</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.516725</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.513675</td>\n",
       "      <td>88.496425</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>max</th>\n",
       "      <td>329.440000</td>\n",
       "      <td>329.440000</td>\n",
       "      <td>329.440000</td>\n",
       "      <td>329.440000</td>\n",
       "      <td>329.440000</td>\n",
       "      <td>329.440000</td>\n",
       "      <td>329.440000</td>\n",
       "      <td>329.440000</td>\n",
       "      <td>329.440000</td>\n",
       "      <td>329.440000</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>8 rows × 70 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                  P         Ph-24         Ph-25         Ph-26         Ph-27  \\\n",
       "count  20520.000000  20520.000000  20520.000000  20520.000000  20520.000000   \n",
       "mean      72.093873     72.053371     72.051262     72.048388     72.043583   \n",
       "std       34.183615     34.176714     34.177036     34.176854     34.173544   \n",
       "min       18.704900     18.704900     18.704900     18.704900     18.704900   \n",
       "25%       48.164400     48.156475     48.154175     48.152250     48.147300   \n",
       "50%       65.084300     65.010100     65.008500     65.007250     65.002250   \n",
       "75%       88.620925     88.541800     88.541800     88.531450     88.526450   \n",
       "max      329.440000    329.440000    329.440000    329.440000    329.440000   \n",
       "\n",
       "              Ph-28         Ph-29         Ph-30         Ph-31         Ph-32  \\\n",
       "count  20520.000000  20520.000000  20520.000000  20520.000000  20520.000000   \n",
       "mean      72.039969     72.035831     72.032904     72.029738     72.025476   \n",
       "std       34.172700     34.170911     34.170539     34.169971     34.168179   \n",
       "min       18.704900     18.704900     18.704900     18.704900     18.704900   \n",
       "25%       48.145375     48.140500     48.134600     48.132500     48.130500   \n",
       "50%       64.996600     64.995100     64.993600     64.989550     64.985950   \n",
       "75%       88.521425     88.517825     88.516725     88.513675     88.496425   \n",
       "max      329.440000    329.440000    329.440000    329.440000    329.440000   \n",
       "\n",
       "           ...          month_Dec     month_Feb     month_Jan     month_Jul  \\\n",
       "count      ...       20520.000000  20520.000000  20520.000000  20520.000000   \n",
       "mean       ...           0.085380      0.065497      0.072515      0.072515   \n",
       "std        ...           0.279453      0.247407      0.259344      0.259344   \n",
       "min        ...           0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000   \n",
       "25%        ...           0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000   \n",
       "50%        ...           0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000   \n",
       "75%        ...           0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000   \n",
       "max        ...           1.000000      1.000000      1.000000      1.000000   \n",
       "\n",
       "          month_Jun     month_Mar     month_May     month_Nov     month_Oct  \\\n",
       "count  20520.000000  20520.000000  20520.000000  20520.000000  20520.000000   \n",
       "mean       0.070175      0.072515      0.072515      0.105263      0.108772   \n",
       "std        0.255449      0.259344      0.259344      0.306900      0.311360   \n",
       "min        0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000   \n",
       "25%        0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000   \n",
       "50%        0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000   \n",
       "75%        0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000      0.000000   \n",
       "max        1.000000      1.000000      1.000000      1.000000      1.000000   \n",
       "\n",
       "          month_Sep  \n",
       "count  20520.000000  \n",
       "mean       0.105263  \n",
       "std        0.306900  \n",
       "min        0.000000  \n",
       "25%        0.000000  \n",
       "50%        0.000000  \n",
       "75%        0.000000  \n",
       "max        1.000000  \n",
       "\n",
       "[8 rows x 70 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 3,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "prices.describe(include=['object', 'int', 'float'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Choosing features and targe"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "X = prices.drop([\"P\"], axis=1)\n",
    "y = prices[\"P\"]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "Fecha_hora\n",
       "2016-08-09 00:00:00    95.3264\n",
       "2016-08-09 01:00:00    82.8532\n",
       "2016-08-09 02:00:00    57.9764\n",
       "2016-08-09 03:00:00    67.6407\n",
       "2016-08-09 04:00:00    66.4892\n",
       "Name: P, dtype: float64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 5,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "y.head(5)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
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       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-24</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-25</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-26</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-27</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-28</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-29</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-30</th>\n",
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       "      <th>Ph-32</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ph-33</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Dec</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Feb</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Jan</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Jul</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Jun</th>\n",
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       "      <th>month_Oct</th>\n",
       "      <th>month_Sep</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>Fecha_hora</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
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       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
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       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2016-08-09 00:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>54.8461</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.1982</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.7123</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.2995</td>\n",
       "      <td>42.9422</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.3551</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.3440</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.6826</td>\n",
       "      <td>42.6676</td>\n",
       "      <td>39.0872</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2016-08-09 01:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>52.2179</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.8461</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.1982</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2016-08-09 02:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>61.9198</td>\n",
       "      <td>52.2179</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.8461</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.1982</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.7123</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2016-08-09 03:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>36.8105</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.9198</td>\n",
       "      <td>52.2179</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.8461</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.1982</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.7123</td>\n",
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       "      <td>42.9422</td>\n",
       "      <td>44.3551</td>\n",
       "      <td>46.3440</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2016-08-09 04:00:00</th>\n",
       "      <td>34.8274</td>\n",
       "      <td>36.8105</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.9198</td>\n",
       "      <td>52.2179</td>\n",
       "      <td>54.8461</td>\n",
       "      <td>45.1982</td>\n",
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       "<p>5 rows × 69 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                       Ph-24    Ph-25    Ph-26    Ph-27    Ph-28    Ph-29  \\\n",
       "Fecha_hora                                                                  \n",
       "2016-08-09 00:00:00  54.8461  45.1982  44.7123  46.2995  42.9422  44.3551   \n",
       "2016-08-09 01:00:00  52.2179  54.8461  45.1982  44.7123  46.2995  42.9422   \n",
       "2016-08-09 02:00:00  61.9198  52.2179  54.8461  45.1982  44.7123  46.2995   \n",
       "2016-08-09 03:00:00  36.8105  61.9198  52.2179  54.8461  45.1982  44.7123   \n",
       "2016-08-09 04:00:00  34.8274  36.8105  61.9198  52.2179  54.8461  45.1982   \n",
       "\n",
       "                       Ph-30    Ph-31    Ph-32    Ph-33    ...      month_Dec  \\\n",
       "Fecha_hora                                                 ...                  \n",
       "2016-08-09 00:00:00  46.3440  45.6826  42.6676  39.0872    ...              0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 01:00:00  44.3551  46.3440  45.6826  42.6676    ...              0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 02:00:00  42.9422  44.3551  46.3440  45.6826    ...              0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 03:00:00  46.2995  42.9422  44.3551  46.3440    ...              0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 04:00:00  44.7123  46.2995  42.9422  44.3551    ...              0   \n",
       "\n",
       "                     month_Feb  month_Jan  month_Jul  month_Jun  month_Mar  \\\n",
       "Fecha_hora                                                                   \n",
       "2016-08-09 00:00:00          0          0          0          0          0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 01:00:00          0          0          0          0          0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 02:00:00          0          0          0          0          0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 03:00:00          0          0          0          0          0   \n",
       "2016-08-09 04:00:00          0          0          0          0          0   \n",
       "\n",
       "                     month_May  month_Nov  month_Oct  month_Sep  \n",
       "Fecha_hora                                                       \n",
       "2016-08-09 00:00:00          0          0          0          0  \n",
       "2016-08-09 01:00:00          0          0          0          0  \n",
       "2016-08-09 02:00:00          0          0          0          0  \n",
       "2016-08-09 03:00:00          0          0          0          0  \n",
       "2016-08-09 04:00:00          0          0          0          0  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 69 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 6,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "X.head(5)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Train/test split"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Training features/target:  (15390, 69) (15390,)\n",
      "Testing freatures/targe:  (5130, 69) (5130,)\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split\n",
    "X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X,y, random_state = 1)\n",
    "print(\"Training features/target: \", X_train.shape, y_train.shape)\n",
    "print(\"Testing freatures/targe: \", X_test.shape, y_test.shape)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Scalaling Features"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "y_train = y_train.values.reshape(-1 ,1)\n",
    "y_test = y_test.values.reshape(-1 , 1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler\n",
    "sc_X = StandardScaler()\n",
    "sc_y = StandardScaler()\n",
    "X_train_sc = sc_X.fit_transform(X_train)\n",
    "y_train_sc = sc_y.fit_transform(y_train)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([[-0.32091766],\n",
       "       [ 0.3488435 ],\n",
       "       [-0.5951777 ],\n",
       "       ..., \n",
       "       [-0.76017387],\n",
       "       [-1.2435408 ],\n",
       "       [-0.22298388]])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 10,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "y_train_sc"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([[-0.29857336, -0.24846105, -0.05925363, ..., -0.34618323,\n",
       "         2.86052051, -0.34665381],\n",
       "       [ 0.20016046, -0.24156467, -0.1753998 , ..., -0.34618323,\n",
       "        -0.34958673,  2.88472239],\n",
       "       [-0.96373   , -0.98616114, -1.22141754, ..., -0.34618323,\n",
       "        -0.34958673, -0.34665381],\n",
       "       ..., \n",
       "       [-1.1567646 , -1.26993086, -1.23410382, ..., -0.34618323,\n",
       "        -0.34958673, -0.34665381],\n",
       "       [-1.14237473, -1.08174836, -1.00116755, ..., -0.34618323,\n",
       "        -0.34958673, -0.34665381],\n",
       "       [-0.76499498, -0.69582259, -0.66784826, ..., -0.34618323,\n",
       "        -0.34958673, -0.34665381]])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 11,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "X_train_sc"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    " ### Model 1: Support Vector Regression (RBF kernel)\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from sklearn.svm import SVR\n",
    "svr_rbf = SVR(kernel=\"rbf\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "SVR(C=1.0, cache_size=200, coef0=0.0, degree=3, epsilon=0.1, gamma='auto',\n",
       "  kernel='rbf', max_iter=-1, shrinking=True, tol=0.001, verbose=False)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 13,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "svr_rbf.fit(X_train_sc, y_train_sc.ravel())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "            fig.context.drawImage(fig.imageObj, 0, 0);\n",
       "        };\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.imageObj.onunload = function() {\n",
       "        fig.ws.close();\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.ws.onmessage = this._make_on_message_function(this);\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.ondownload = ondownload;\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._init_header = function() {\n",
       "    var titlebar = $(\n",
       "        '<div class=\"ui-dialog-titlebar ui-widget-header ui-corner-all ' +\n",
       "        'ui-helper-clearfix\"/>');\n",
       "    var titletext = $(\n",
       "        '<div class=\"ui-dialog-title\" style=\"width: 100%; ' +\n",
       "        'text-align: center; padding: 3px;\"/>');\n",
       "    titlebar.append(titletext)\n",
       "    this.root.append(titlebar);\n",
       "    this.header = titletext[0];\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._canvas_extra_style = function(canvas_div) {\n",
       "\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._root_extra_style = function(canvas_div) {\n",
       "\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._init_canvas = function() {\n",
       "    var fig = this;\n",
       "\n",
       "    var canvas_div = $('<div/>');\n",
       "\n",
       "    canvas_div.attr('style', 'position: relative; clear: both; outline: 0');\n",
       "\n",
       "    function canvas_keyboard_event(event) {\n",
       "        return fig.key_event(event, event['data']);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    canvas_div.keydown('key_press', canvas_keyboard_event);\n",
       "    canvas_div.keyup('key_release', canvas_keyboard_event);\n",
       "    this.canvas_div = canvas_div\n",
       "    this._canvas_extra_style(canvas_div)\n",
       "    this.root.append(canvas_div);\n",
       "\n",
       "    var canvas = $('<canvas/>');\n",
       "    canvas.addClass('mpl-canvas');\n",
       "    canvas.attr('style', \"left: 0; top: 0; z-index: 0; outline: 0\")\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.canvas = canvas[0];\n",
       "    this.context = canvas[0].getContext(\"2d\");\n",
       "\n",
       "    var backingStore = this.context.backingStorePixelRatio ||\n",
       "\tthis.context.webkitBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n",
       "\tthis.context.mozBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n",
       "\tthis.context.msBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n",
       "\tthis.context.oBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n",
       "\tthis.context.backingStorePixelRatio || 1;\n",
       "\n",
       "    mpl.ratio = (window.devicePixelRatio || 1) / backingStore;\n",
       "\n",
       "    var rubberband = $('<canvas/>');\n",
       "    rubberband.attr('style', \"position: absolute; left: 0; top: 0; z-index: 1;\")\n",
       "\n",
       "    var pass_mouse_events = true;\n",
       "\n",
       "    canvas_div.resizable({\n",
       "        start: function(event, ui) {\n",
       "            pass_mouse_events = false;\n",
       "        },\n",
       "        resize: function(event, ui) {\n",
       "            fig.request_resize(ui.size.width, ui.size.height);\n",
       "        },\n",
       "        stop: function(event, ui) {\n",
       "            pass_mouse_events = true;\n",
       "            fig.request_resize(ui.size.width, ui.size.height);\n",
       "        },\n",
       "    });\n",
       "\n",
       "    function mouse_event_fn(event) {\n",
       "        if (pass_mouse_events)\n",
       "            return fig.mouse_event(event, event['data']);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    rubberband.mousedown('button_press', mouse_event_fn);\n",
       "    rubberband.mouseup('button_release', mouse_event_fn);\n",
       "    // Throttle sequential mouse events to 1 every 20ms.\n",
       "    rubberband.mousemove('motion_notify', mouse_event_fn);\n",
       "\n",
       "    rubberband.mouseenter('figure_enter', mouse_event_fn);\n",
       "    rubberband.mouseleave('figure_leave', mouse_event_fn);\n",
       "\n",
       "    canvas_div.on(\"wheel\", function (event) {\n",
       "        event = event.originalEvent;\n",
       "        event['data'] = 'scroll'\n",
       "        if (event.deltaY < 0) {\n",
       "            event.step = 1;\n",
       "        } else {\n",
       "            event.step = -1;\n",
       "        }\n",
       "        mouse_event_fn(event);\n",
       "    });\n",
       "\n",
       "    canvas_div.append(canvas);\n",
       "    canvas_div.append(rubberband);\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.rubberband = rubberband;\n",
       "    this.rubberband_canvas = rubberband[0];\n",
       "    this.rubberband_context = rubberband[0].getContext(\"2d\");\n",
       "    this.rubberband_context.strokeStyle = \"#000000\";\n",
       "\n",
       "    this._resize_canvas = function(width, height) {\n",
       "        // Keep the size of the canvas, canvas container, and rubber band\n",
       "        // canvas in synch.\n",
       "        canvas_div.css('width', width)\n",
       "        canvas_div.css('height', height)\n",
       "\n",
       "        canvas.attr('width', width * mpl.ratio);\n",
       "        canvas.attr('height', height * mpl.ratio);\n",
       "        canvas.attr('style', 'width: ' + width + 'px; height: ' + height + 'px;');\n",
       "\n",
       "        rubberband.attr('width', width);\n",
       "        rubberband.attr('height', height);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Set the figure to an initial 600x600px, this will subsequently be updated\n",
       "    // upon first draw.\n",
       "    this._resize_canvas(600, 600);\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Disable right mouse context menu.\n",
       "    $(this.rubberband_canvas).bind(\"contextmenu\",function(e){\n",
       "        return false;\n",
       "    });\n",
       "\n",
       "    function set_focus () {\n",
       "        canvas.focus();\n",
       "        canvas_div.focus();\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    window.setTimeout(set_focus, 100);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._init_toolbar = function() {\n",
       "    var fig = this;\n",
       "\n",
       "    var nav_element = $('<div/>')\n",
       "    nav_element.attr('style', 'width: 100%');\n",
       "    this.root.append(nav_element);\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Define a callback function for later on.\n",
       "    function toolbar_event(event) {\n",
       "        return fig.toolbar_button_onclick(event['data']);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    function toolbar_mouse_event(event) {\n",
       "        return fig.toolbar_button_onmouseover(event['data']);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    for(var toolbar_ind in mpl.toolbar_items) {\n",
       "        var name = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][0];\n",
       "        var tooltip = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][1];\n",
       "        var image = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][2];\n",
       "        var method_name = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][3];\n",
       "\n",
       "        if (!name) {\n",
       "            // put a spacer in here.\n",
       "            continue;\n",
       "        }\n",
       "        var button = $('<button/>');\n",
       "        button.addClass('ui-button ui-widget ui-state-default ui-corner-all ' +\n",
       "                        'ui-button-icon-only');\n",
       "        button.attr('role', 'button');\n",
       "        button.attr('aria-disabled', 'false');\n",
       "        button.click(method_name, toolbar_event);\n",
       "        button.mouseover(tooltip, toolbar_mouse_event);\n",
       "\n",
       "        var icon_img = $('<span/>');\n",
       "        icon_img.addClass('ui-button-icon-primary ui-icon');\n",
       "        icon_img.addClass(image);\n",
       "        icon_img.addClass('ui-corner-all');\n",
       "\n",
       "        var tooltip_span = $('<span/>');\n",
       "        tooltip_span.addClass('ui-button-text');\n",
       "        tooltip_span.html(tooltip);\n",
       "\n",
       "        button.append(icon_img);\n",
       "        button.append(tooltip_span);\n",
       "\n",
       "        nav_element.append(button);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    var fmt_picker_span = $('<span/>');\n",
       "\n",
       "    var fmt_picker = $('<select/>');\n",
       "    fmt_picker.addClass('mpl-toolbar-option ui-widget ui-widget-content');\n",
       "    fmt_picker_span.append(fmt_picker);\n",
       "    nav_element.append(fmt_picker_span);\n",
       "    this.format_dropdown = fmt_picker[0];\n",
       "\n",
       "    for (var ind in mpl.extensions) {\n",
       "        var fmt = mpl.extensions[ind];\n",
       "        var option = $(\n",
       "            '<option/>', {selected: fmt === mpl.default_extension}).html(fmt);\n",
       "        fmt_picker.append(option)\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Add hover states to the ui-buttons\n",
       "    $( \".ui-button\" ).hover(\n",
       "        function() { $(this).addClass(\"ui-state-hover\");},\n",
       "        function() { $(this).removeClass(\"ui-state-hover\");}\n",
       "    );\n",
       "\n",
       "    var status_bar = $('<span class=\"mpl-message\"/>');\n",
       "    nav_element.append(status_bar);\n",
       "    this.message = status_bar[0];\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.request_resize = function(x_pixels, y_pixels) {\n",
       "    // Request matplotlib to resize the figure. Matplotlib will then trigger a resize in the client,\n",
       "    // which will in turn request a refresh of the image.\n",
       "    this.send_message('resize', {'width': x_pixels, 'height': y_pixels});\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.send_message = function(type, properties) {\n",
       "    properties['type'] = type;\n",
       "    properties['figure_id'] = this.id;\n",
       "    this.ws.send(JSON.stringify(properties));\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.send_draw_message = function() {\n",
       "    if (!this.waiting) {\n",
       "        this.waiting = true;\n",
       "        this.ws.send(JSON.stringify({type: \"draw\", figure_id: this.id}));\n",
       "    }\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_save = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    var format_dropdown = fig.format_dropdown;\n",
       "    var format = format_dropdown.options[format_dropdown.selectedIndex].value;\n",
       "    fig.ondownload(fig, format);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_resize = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    var size = msg['size'];\n",
       "    if (size[0] != fig.canvas.width || size[1] != fig.canvas.height) {\n",
       "        fig._resize_canvas(size[0], size[1]);\n",
       "        fig.send_message(\"refresh\", {});\n",
       "    };\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_rubberband = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    var x0 = msg['x0'] / mpl.ratio;\n",
       "    var y0 = (fig.canvas.height - msg['y0']) / mpl.ratio;\n",
       "    var x1 = msg['x1'] / mpl.ratio;\n",
       "    var y1 = (fig.canvas.height - msg['y1']) / mpl.ratio;\n",
       "    x0 = Math.floor(x0) + 0.5;\n",
       "    y0 = Math.floor(y0) + 0.5;\n",
       "    x1 = Math.floor(x1) + 0.5;\n",
       "    y1 = Math.floor(y1) + 0.5;\n",
       "    var min_x = Math.min(x0, x1);\n",
       "    var min_y = Math.min(y0, y1);\n",
       "    var width = Math.abs(x1 - x0);\n",
       "    var height = Math.abs(y1 - y0);\n",
       "\n",
       "    fig.rubberband_context.clearRect(\n",
       "        0, 0, fig.canvas.width, fig.canvas.height);\n",
       "\n",
       "    fig.rubberband_context.strokeRect(min_x, min_y, width, height);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_figure_label = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    // Updates the figure title.\n",
       "    fig.header.textContent = msg['label'];\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_cursor = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    var cursor = msg['cursor'];\n",
       "    switch(cursor)\n",
       "    {\n",
       "    case 0:\n",
       "        cursor = 'pointer';\n",
       "        break;\n",
       "    case 1:\n",
       "        cursor = 'default';\n",
       "        break;\n",
       "    case 2:\n",
       "        cursor = 'crosshair';\n",
       "        break;\n",
       "    case 3:\n",
       "        cursor = 'move';\n",
       "        break;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    fig.rubberband_canvas.style.cursor = cursor;\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_message = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    fig.message.textContent = msg['message'];\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_draw = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    // Request the server to send over a new figure.\n",
       "    fig.send_draw_message();\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_image_mode = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    fig.image_mode = msg['mode'];\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.updated_canvas_event = function() {\n",
       "    // Called whenever the canvas gets updated.\n",
       "    this.send_message(\"ack\", {});\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "// A function to construct a web socket function for onmessage handling.\n",
       "// Called in the figure constructor.\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._make_on_message_function = function(fig) {\n",
       "    return function socket_on_message(evt) {\n",
       "        if (evt.data instanceof Blob) {\n",
       "            /* FIXME: We get \"Resource interpreted as Image but\n",
       "             * transferred with MIME type text/plain:\" errors on\n",
       "             * Chrome.  But how to set the MIME type?  It doesn't seem\n",
       "             * to be part of the websocket stream */\n",
       "            evt.data.type = \"image/png\";\n",
       "\n",
       "            /* Free the memory for the previous frames */\n",
       "            if (fig.imageObj.src) {\n",
       "                (window.URL || window.webkitURL).revokeObjectURL(\n",
       "                    fig.imageObj.src);\n",
       "            }\n",
       "\n",
       "            fig.imageObj.src = (window.URL || window.webkitURL).createObjectURL(\n",
       "                evt.data);\n",
       "            fig.updated_canvas_event();\n",
       "            fig.waiting = false;\n",
       "            return;\n",
       "        }\n",
       "        else if (typeof evt.data === 'string' && evt.data.slice(0, 21) == \"data:image/png;base64\") {\n",
       "            fig.imageObj.src = evt.data;\n",
       "            fig.updated_canvas_event();\n",
       "            fig.waiting = false;\n",
       "            return;\n",
       "        }\n",
       "\n",
       "        var msg = JSON.parse(evt.data);\n",
       "        var msg_type = msg['type'];\n",
       "\n",
       "        // Call the  \"handle_{type}\" callback, which takes\n",
       "        // the figure and JSON message as its only arguments.\n",
       "        try {\n",
       "            var callback = fig[\"handle_\" + msg_type];\n",
       "        } catch (e) {\n",
       "            console.log(\"No handler for the '\" + msg_type + \"' message type: \", msg);\n",
       "            return;\n",
       "        }\n",
       "\n",
       "        if (callback) {\n",
       "            try {\n",
       "                // console.log(\"Handling '\" + msg_type + \"' message: \", msg);\n",
       "                callback(fig, msg);\n",
       "            } catch (e) {\n",
       "                console.log(\"Exception inside the 'handler_\" + msg_type + \"' callback:\", e, e.stack, msg);\n",
       "            }\n",
       "        }\n",
       "    };\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "// from http://stackoverflow.com/questions/1114465/getting-mouse-location-in-canvas\n",
       "mpl.findpos = function(e) {\n",
       "    //this section is from http://www.quirksmode.org/js/events_properties.html\n",
       "    var targ;\n",
       "    if (!e)\n",
       "        e = window.event;\n",
       "    if (e.target)\n",
       "        targ = e.target;\n",
       "    else if (e.srcElement)\n",
       "        targ = e.srcElement;\n",
       "    if (targ.nodeType == 3) // defeat Safari bug\n",
       "        targ = targ.parentNode;\n",
       "\n",
       "    // jQuery normalizes the pageX and pageY\n",
       "    // pageX,Y are the mouse positions relative to the document\n",
       "    // offset() returns the position of the element relative to the document\n",
       "    var x = e.pageX - $(targ).offset().left;\n",
       "    var y = e.pageY - $(targ).offset().top;\n",
       "\n",
       "    return {\"x\": x, \"y\": y};\n",
       "};\n",
       "\n",
       "/*\n",
       " * return a copy of an object with only non-object keys\n",
       " * we need this to avoid circular references\n",
       " * http://stackoverflow.com/a/24161582/3208463\n",
       " */\n",
       "function simpleKeys (original) {\n",
       "  return Object.keys(original).reduce(function (obj, key) {\n",
       "    if (typeof original[key] !== 'object')\n",
       "        obj[key] = original[key]\n",
       "    return obj;\n",
       "  }, {});\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.mouse_event = function(event, name) {\n",
       "    var canvas_pos = mpl.findpos(event)\n",
       "\n",
       "    if (name === 'button_press')\n",
       "    {\n",
       "        this.canvas.focus();\n",
       "        this.canvas_div.focus();\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    var x = canvas_pos.x * mpl.ratio;\n",
       "    var y = canvas_pos.y * mpl.ratio;\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.send_message(name, {x: x, y: y, button: event.button,\n",
       "                             step: event.step,\n",
       "                             guiEvent: simpleKeys(event)});\n",
       "\n",
       "    /* This prevents the web browser from automatically changing to\n",
       "     * the text insertion cursor when the button is pressed.  We want\n",
       "     * to control all of the cursor setting manually through the\n",
       "     * 'cursor' event from matplotlib */\n",
       "    event.preventDefault();\n",
       "    return false;\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._key_event_extra = function(event, name) {\n",
       "    // Handle any extra behaviour associated with a key event\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.key_event = function(event, name) {\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Prevent repeat events\n",
       "    if (name == 'key_press')\n",
       "    {\n",
       "        if (event.which === this._key)\n",
       "            return;\n",
       "        else\n",
       "            this._key = event.which;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    if (name == 'key_release')\n",
       "        this._key = null;\n",
       "\n",
       "    var value = '';\n",
       "    if (event.ctrlKey && event.which != 17)\n",
       "        value += \"ctrl+\";\n",
       "    if (event.altKey && event.which != 18)\n",
       "        value += \"alt+\";\n",
       "    if (event.shiftKey && event.which != 16)\n",
       "        value += \"shift+\";\n",
       "\n",
       "    value += 'k';\n",
       "    value += event.which.toString();\n",
       "\n",
       "    this._key_event_extra(event, name);\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.send_message(name, {key: value,\n",
       "                             guiEvent: simpleKeys(event)});\n",
       "    return false;\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.toolbar_button_onclick = function(name) {\n",
       "    if (name == 'download') {\n",
       "        this.handle_save(this, null);\n",
       "    } else {\n",
       "        this.send_message(\"toolbar_button\", {name: name});\n",
       "    }\n",
       "};\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.toolbar_button_onmouseover = function(tooltip) {\n",
       "    this.message.textContent = tooltip;\n",
       "};\n",
       "mpl.toolbar_items = [[\"Home\", \"Reset original view\", \"fa fa-home icon-home\", \"home\"], [\"Back\", \"Back to  previous view\", \"fa fa-arrow-left icon-arrow-left\", \"back\"], [\"Forward\", \"Forward to next view\", \"fa fa-arrow-right icon-arrow-right\", \"forward\"], [\"\", \"\", \"\", \"\"], [\"Pan\", \"Pan axes with left mouse, zoom with right\", \"fa fa-arrows icon-move\", \"pan\"], [\"Zoom\", \"Zoom to rectangle\", \"fa fa-square-o icon-check-empty\", \"zoom\"], [\"\", \"\", \"\", \"\"], [\"Download\", \"Download plot\", \"fa fa-floppy-o icon-save\", \"download\"]];\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.extensions = [\"eps\", \"jpeg\", \"pdf\", \"png\", \"ps\", \"raw\", \"svg\", \"tif\"];\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.default_extension = \"png\";var comm_websocket_adapter = function(comm) {\n",
       "    // Create a \"websocket\"-like object which calls the given IPython comm\n",
       "    // object with the appropriate methods. Currently this is a non binary\n",
       "    // socket, so there is still some room for performance tuning.\n",
       "    var ws = {};\n",
       "\n",
       "    ws.close = function() {\n",
       "        comm.close()\n",
       "    };\n",
       "    ws.send = function(m) {\n",
       "        //console.log('sending', m);\n",
       "        comm.send(m);\n",
       "    };\n",
       "    // Register the callback with on_msg.\n",
       "    comm.on_msg(function(msg) {\n",
       "        //console.log('receiving', msg['content']['data'], msg);\n",
       "        // Pass the mpl event to the overriden (by mpl) onmessage function.\n",
       "        ws.onmessage(msg['content']['data'])\n",
       "    });\n",
       "    return ws;\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.mpl_figure_comm = function(comm, msg) {\n",
       "    // This is the function which gets called when the mpl process\n",
       "    // starts-up an IPython Comm through the \"matplotlib\" channel.\n",
       "\n",
       "    var id = msg.content.data.id;\n",
       "    // Get hold of the div created by the display call when the Comm\n",
       "    // socket was opened in Python.\n",
       "    var element = $(\"#\" + id);\n",
       "    var ws_proxy = comm_websocket_adapter(comm)\n",
       "\n",
       "    function ondownload(figure, format) {\n",
       "        window.open(figure.imageObj.src);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    var fig = new mpl.figure(id, ws_proxy,\n",
       "                           ondownload,\n",
       "                           element.get(0));\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Call onopen now - mpl needs it, as it is assuming we've passed it a real\n",
       "    // web socket which is closed, not our websocket->open comm proxy.\n",
       "    ws_proxy.onopen();\n",
       "\n",
       "    fig.parent_element = element.get(0);\n",
       "    fig.cell_info = mpl.find_output_cell(\"<div id='\" + id + \"'></div>\");\n",
       "    if (!fig.cell_info) {\n",
       "        console.error(\"Failed to find cell for figure\", id, fig);\n",
       "        return;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    var output_index = fig.cell_info[2]\n",
       "    var cell = fig.cell_info[0];\n",
       "\n",
       "};\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_close = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    var width = fig.canvas.width/mpl.ratio\n",
       "    fig.root.unbind('remove')\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Update the output cell to use the data from the current canvas.\n",
       "    fig.push_to_output();\n",
       "    var dataURL = fig.canvas.toDataURL();\n",
       "    // Re-enable the keyboard manager in IPython - without this line, in FF,\n",
       "    // the notebook keyboard shortcuts fail.\n",
       "    IPython.keyboard_manager.enable()\n",
       "    $(fig.parent_element).html('<img src=\"' + dataURL + '\" width=\"' + width + '\">');\n",
       "    fig.close_ws(fig, msg);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.close_ws = function(fig, msg){\n",
       "    fig.send_message('closing', msg);\n",
       "    // fig.ws.close()\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.push_to_output = function(remove_interactive) {\n",
       "    // Turn the data on the canvas into data in the output cell.\n",
       "    var width = this.canvas.width/mpl.ratio\n",
       "    var dataURL = this.canvas.toDataURL();\n",
       "    this.cell_info[1]['text/html'] = '<img src=\"' + dataURL + '\" width=\"' + width + '\">';\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.updated_canvas_event = function() {\n",
       "    // Tell IPython that the notebook contents must change.\n",
       "    IPython.notebook.set_dirty(true);\n",
       "    this.send_message(\"ack\", {});\n",
       "    var fig = this;\n",
       "    // Wait a second, then push the new image to the DOM so\n",
       "    // that it is saved nicely (might be nice to debounce this).\n",
       "    setTimeout(function () { fig.push_to_output() }, 1000);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._init_toolbar = function() {\n",
       "    var fig = this;\n",
       "\n",
       "    var nav_element = $('<div/>')\n",
       "    nav_element.attr('style', 'width: 100%');\n",
       "    this.root.append(nav_element);\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Define a callback function for later on.\n",
       "    function toolbar_event(event) {\n",
       "        return fig.toolbar_button_onclick(event['data']);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    function toolbar_mouse_event(event) {\n",
       "        return fig.toolbar_button_onmouseover(event['data']);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    for(var toolbar_ind in mpl.toolbar_items){\n",
       "        var name = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][0];\n",
       "        var tooltip = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][1];\n",
       "        var image = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][2];\n",
       "        var method_name = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][3];\n",
       "\n",
       "        if (!name) { continue; };\n",
       "\n",
       "        var button = $('<button class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"#\" title=\"' + name + '\"><i class=\"fa ' + image + ' fa-lg\"></i></button>');\n",
       "        button.click(method_name, toolbar_event);\n",
       "        button.mouseover(tooltip, toolbar_mouse_event);\n",
       "        nav_element.append(button);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Add the status bar.\n",
       "    var status_bar = $('<span class=\"mpl-message\" style=\"text-align:right; float: right;\"/>');\n",
       "    nav_element.append(status_bar);\n",
       "    this.message = status_bar[0];\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Add the close button to the window.\n",
       "    var buttongrp = $('<div class=\"btn-group inline pull-right\"></div>');\n",
       "    var button = $('<button class=\"btn btn-mini btn-primary\" href=\"#\" title=\"Stop Interaction\"><i class=\"fa fa-power-off icon-remove icon-large\"></i></button>');\n",
       "    button.click(function (evt) { fig.handle_close(fig, {}); } );\n",
       "    button.mouseover('Stop Interaction', toolbar_mouse_event);\n",
       "    buttongrp.append(button);\n",
       "    var titlebar = this.root.find($('.ui-dialog-titlebar'));\n",
       "    titlebar.prepend(buttongrp);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._root_extra_style = function(el){\n",
       "    var fig = this\n",
       "    el.on(\"remove\", function(){\n",
       "\tfig.close_ws(fig, {});\n",
       "    });\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._canvas_extra_style = function(el){\n",
       "    // this is important to make the div 'focusable\n",
       "    el.attr('tabindex', 0)\n",
       "    // reach out to IPython and tell the keyboard manager to turn it's self\n",
       "    // off when our div gets focus\n",
       "\n",
       "    // location in version 3\n",
       "    if (IPython.notebook.keyboard_manager) {\n",
       "        IPython.notebook.keyboard_manager.register_events(el);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    else {\n",
       "        // location in version 2\n",
       "        IPython.keyboard_manager.register_events(el);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._key_event_extra = function(event, name) {\n",
       "    var manager = IPython.notebook.keyboard_manager;\n",
       "    if (!manager)\n",
       "        manager = IPython.keyboard_manager;\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Check for shift+enter\n",
       "    if (event.shiftKey && event.which == 13) {\n",
       "        this.canvas_div.blur();\n",
       "        event.shiftKey = false;\n",
       "        // Send a \"J\" for go to next cell\n",
       "        event.which = 74;\n",
       "        event.keyCode = 74;\n",
       "        manager.command_mode();\n",
       "        manager.handle_keydown(event);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_save = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    fig.ondownload(fig, null);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.find_output_cell = function(html_output) {\n",
       "    // Return the cell and output element which can be found *uniquely* in the notebook.\n",
       "    // Note - this is a bit hacky, but it is done because the \"notebook_saving.Notebook\"\n",
       "    // IPython event is triggered only after the cells have been serialised, which for\n",
       "    // our purposes (turning an active figure into a static one), is too late.\n",
       "    var cells = IPython.notebook.get_cells();\n",
       "    var ncells = cells.length;\n",
       "    for (var i=0; i<ncells; i++) {\n",
       "        var cell = cells[i];\n",
       "        if (cell.cell_type === 'code'){\n",
       "            for (var j=0; j<cell.output_area.outputs.length; j++) {\n",
       "                var data = cell.output_area.outputs[j];\n",
       "                if (data.data) {\n",
       "                    // IPython >= 3 moved mimebundle to data attribute of output\n",
       "                    data = data.data;\n",
       "                }\n",
       "                if (data['text/html'] == html_output) {\n",
       "                    return [cell, data, j];\n",
       "                }\n",
       "            }\n",
       "        }\n",
       "    }\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "// Register the function which deals with the matplotlib target/channel.\n",
       "// The kernel may be null if the page has been refreshed.\n",
       "if (IPython.notebook.kernel != null) {\n",
       "    IPython.notebook.kernel.comm_manager.register_target('matplotlib', mpl.mpl_figure_comm);\n",
       "}\n"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "<IPython.core.display.Javascript object>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<img src=\"data:image/png;base64,[encoded data, 54656 characters]\" width=\"640\">"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "<IPython.core.display.HTML object>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "plt.plot(y_train_sc[100:200], 'o')\n",
    "plt.plot(svr_rbf.predict(X_train_sc)[100:200])\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0.79333053606552029"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 15,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "svr_rbf.score(X_train_sc, y_train_sc)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0.74535729550887031"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 16,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "svr_rbf.score(sc_X.transform(X_test), sc_y.transform(y_test))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "source": [
    "### Model 2: Decision Tree Regression"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeRegressor\n",
    "dtr_3 = DecisionTreeRegressor(max_depth=3)\n",
    "dtr_5 = DecisionTreeRegressor(max_depth=5)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 18,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "DecisionTreeRegressor(criterion='mse', max_depth=3, max_features=None,\n",
       "           max_leaf_nodes=None, min_impurity_decrease=0.0,\n",
       "           min_impurity_split=None, min_samples_leaf=1,\n",
       "           min_samples_split=2, min_weight_fraction_leaf=0.0,\n",
       "           presort=False, random_state=None, splitter='best')"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 18,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "dtr_3.fit(X_train_sc, y_train_sc)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 19,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "DecisionTreeRegressor(criterion='mse', max_depth=5, max_features=None,\n",
       "           max_leaf_nodes=None, min_impurity_decrease=0.0,\n",
       "           min_impurity_split=None, min_samples_leaf=1,\n",
       "           min_samples_split=2, min_weight_fraction_leaf=0.0,\n",
       "           presort=False, random_state=None, splitter='best')"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 19,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "dtr_5.fit(X_train_sc, y_train_sc)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 20,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "plt.plot(y_train_sc[100:200], 'o')\n",
    "plt.plot(dtr_3.predict(X_train_sc)[100:200])\n",
    "plt.plot(dtr_5.predict(X_train_sc)[100:200])\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 21,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 3 = 0.5376101221873852\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 5 = 0.6207144339050665\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "print(\"Score DecisionTree Max Depth 3 = {}\".format(dtr_3.score(X_train_sc, y_train_sc)))\n",
    "print(\"Score DecisionTree Max Depth 5 = {}\".format(dtr_5.score(X_train_sc, y_train_sc)))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 22,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 3 = 0.5376101221873852\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 4 = 0.5819830984172563\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 5 = 0.6207144339050666\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 6 = 0.6575493411331992\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 7 = 0.7000976157071859\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 8 = 0.7417891947007296\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 9 = 0.7796139190709784\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 10 = 0.8186019954806971\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 11 = 0.8517407894880966\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 12 = 0.8787615265641765\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 13 = 0.8998302957524632\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 14 = 0.9189711133427799\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 15 = 0.9351217066483523\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for i in range(3,16):\n",
    "    dtr = DecisionTreeRegressor(max_depth=i)\n",
    "    dtr.fit(X_train_sc, y_train_sc)\n",
    "    score = dtr.score(X_train_sc, y_train_sc)\n",
    "    print(\"Score DecisionTree Max Depth {} = {}\".format(i, score))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 23,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "[<matplotlib.lines.Line2D at 0x7f5714553080>]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 23,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "plt.plot(y_train_sc[100:200], 'o')\n",
    "plt.plot(dtr.predict(X_train_sc)[100:200])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 24,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "DecisionTreeRegressor(criterion='mse', max_depth=15, max_features=None,\n",
       "           max_leaf_nodes=None, min_impurity_decrease=0.0,\n",
       "           min_impurity_split=None, min_samples_leaf=1,\n",
       "           min_samples_split=2, min_weight_fraction_leaf=0.0,\n",
       "           presort=False, random_state=None, splitter='best')"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 24,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "dtr"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 25,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "X_test_sc = sc_X.fit_transform(X_test)\n",
    "y_test_sc = sc_y.fit_transform(y_test)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 26,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0.57366271934918389"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 26,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "dtr.score(X_test_sc, y_test_sc)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 27,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "[<matplotlib.lines.Line2D at 0x7f571bc8f7f0>]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 27,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "plt.plot(y_test_sc[100:200], 'o')\n",
    "plt.plot(dtr.predict(X_test_sc)[100:200])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 28,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 3 = 0.5447757679348099\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 4 = 0.5813165176417705\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 5 = 0.6171162590982225\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 6 = 0.643591419255576\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 7 = 0.6422122515157203\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 8 = 0.6484980101141073\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 9 = 0.6470638521651217\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 10 = 0.6310172561486501\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 11 = 0.6156436911621083\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 12 = 0.6071403399425567\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 13 = 0.5894385136384006\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 14 = 0.56994330649203\n",
      "Score DecisionTree Max Depth 15 = 0.5683570869168504\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for i in range(3,16):\n",
    "    dtr = DecisionTreeRegressor(max_depth=i)\n",
    "    dtr.fit(X_train_sc, y_train_sc)\n",
    "    score = dtr.score(X_test_sc, y_test_sc)\n",
    "    print(\"Score DecisionTree Max Depth {} = {}\".format(i, score))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 29,
   "metadata": {
    "scrolled": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 3 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.5447757679348099\n",
      "MAE = 0.46431256163839746\n",
      "MSE = 0.45522423206519014\n",
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 4 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.5813165176417705\n",
      "MAE = 0.4365033046266089\n",
      "MSE = 0.41868348235822944\n",
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 5 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.6176244143154237\n",
      "MAE = 0.41608267197173326\n",
      "MSE = 0.38237558568457636\n",
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 6 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.6435914192555758\n",
      "MAE = 0.4005472697824797\n",
      "MSE = 0.3564085807444241\n",
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 7 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.6457514607301709\n",
      "MAE = 0.3950170171596062\n",
      "MSE = 0.3542485392698291\n",
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 8 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.6461945241243234\n",
      "MAE = 0.3862635255136792\n",
      "MSE = 0.3538054758756766\n",
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 9 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.6435205487013227\n",
      "MAE = 0.3794593900258981\n",
      "MSE = 0.35647945129867736\n",
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 10 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.6361163762596282\n",
      "MAE = 0.3737453081612358\n",
      "MSE = 0.3638836237403718\n",
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 11 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.6088499121714971\n",
      "MAE = 0.377242411769197\n",
      "MSE = 0.3911500878285029\n",
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 12 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.5876380513299163\n",
      "MAE = 0.3782357399545697\n",
      "MSE = 0.4123619486700837\n",
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 13 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.5986844688680286\n",
      "MAE = 0.3760863871945634\n",
      "MSE = 0.40131553113197144\n",
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 14 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.5714506785525486\n",
      "MAE = 0.3832148739274874\n",
      "MSE = 0.42854932144745145\n",
      "----- DesicionTree Max Dept 15 ---- \n",
      "R2  = 0.5736051089494587\n",
      "MAE = 0.3817431483463335\n",
      "MSE = 0.42639489105054135\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error, mean_squared_error\n",
    "list_mae = []\n",
    "list_score = []\n",
    "list_mse = []\n",
    "for i in range(3,16):\n",
    "    dtr = DecisionTreeRegressor(max_depth=i)\n",
    "    dtr.fit(X_train_sc, y_train_sc)\n",
    "    y_pred_sc = dtr.predict(X_test_sc)\n",
    "    score = dtr.score(X_test_sc, y_test_sc)\n",
    "    list_score.append(score)\n",
    "    mae = mean_absolute_error(y_test_sc, y_pred_sc)\n",
    "    list_mae.append(mae)\n",
    "    mse = mean_squared_error(y_test_sc, y_pred_sc)\n",
    "    list_mse.append(mse)\n",
    "    print(\"----- DesicionTree Max Dept {} ---- \".format(i))\n",
    "    print(\"R2  = {}\".format(score))\n",
    "    print(\"MAE = {}\".format(mae))\n",
    "    print(\"MSE = {}\".format(mse))\n",
    "    \n",
    "plt.subplot(1,2,1)\n",
    "plt.plot(range(3,16),np.array(list_mae).ravel())\n",
    "plt.plot(range(3,16),np.array(list_mse).ravel())\n",
    "plt.legend([\"MAE\", 'MSE'])\n",
    "plt.xlabel('Depth of DTR')\n",
    "plt.ylabel('Error')\n",
    "plt.title('Measures of Error of Desicion Tree Regression')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.subplot(1,2,2)\n",
    "plt.plot(range(3,16),np.array(list_score).ravel())\n",
    "plt.legend(['R2'])\n",
    "plt.xlabel('Depth of DTR')\n",
    "plt.ylabel('Score')\n",
    "plt.title('Score of Desicion Tree Regression')\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Model Selection based on Errors and Score\n",
    "#### Descicion Tree Max Depth 8"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 30,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "DecisionTreeRegressor(criterion='mse', max_depth=8, max_features=None,\n",
       "           max_leaf_nodes=None, min_impurity_decrease=0.0,\n",
       "           min_impurity_split=None, min_samples_leaf=1,\n",
       "           min_samples_split=2, min_weight_fraction_leaf=0.0,\n",
       "           presort=False, random_state=None, splitter='best')"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 30,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "lbrprice_regressor = DecisionTreeRegressor(max_depth=8)\n",
    "lbrprice_regressor.fit(X_train_sc, y_train_sc)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Dump model to file"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 31,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import pickle\n",
    "\n",
    "#serializing our model to a file called model.pkl\n",
    "pickle.dump(lbrprice_regressor, open(\"lbrprice_model.pkl\",\"wb\"))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "source": [
    "### Cross-Validation and Hyper-parameters"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 32,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Import Pipeline and GridSearchCV\n",
    "from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline\n",
    "from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 33,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "pipe = Pipeline([\n",
    "    ('standarscaler', StandardScaler()),\n",
    "    ('regressor', DecisionTreeRegressor(max_depth=8))\n",
    "])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 35,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "ename": "NameError",
     "evalue": "name 'res' is not defined",
     "output_type": "error",
     "traceback": [
      "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
      "\u001b[0;31mNameError\u001b[0m                                 Traceback (most recent call last)",
      "\u001b[0;32m<ipython-input-35-1c6ef6535070>\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m<module>\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m      3\u001b[0m \u001b[0mrgs\u001b[0m \u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mGridSearchCV\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mpipe\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mhyperparameters\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mcv\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m=\u001b[0m\u001b[0;36m5\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m      4\u001b[0m \u001b[0mrgs\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mfit\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mX_train\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0my_train\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m----> 5\u001b[0;31m \u001b[0mres\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mscore\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mX_test\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0my_test\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m)\u001b[0m\u001b[0;34m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m",
      "\u001b[0;31mNameError\u001b[0m: name 'res' is not defined"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "hyperparameters = {'regressor__max_depth': range(3,16)}\n",
    "\n",
    "rgs = GridSearchCV(pipe, hyperparameters, cv=5)\n",
    "rgs.fit(X_train, y_train)\n",
    "res.score(X_test, y_test)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 36,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0.6569717752833425"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 36,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rgs.score(X_test, y_test)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 37,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "{'regressor__max_depth': 8}"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 37,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rgs.best_params_"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 38,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "y_pred = rgs.predict(X_test)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 41,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "application/javascript": [
       "/* Put everything inside the global mpl namespace */\n",
       "window.mpl = {};\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.get_websocket_type = function() {\n",
       "    if (typeof(WebSocket) !== 'undefined') {\n",
       "        return WebSocket;\n",
       "    } else if (typeof(MozWebSocket) !== 'undefined') {\n",
       "        return MozWebSocket;\n",
       "    } else {\n",
       "        alert('Your browser does not have WebSocket support.' +\n",
       "              'Please try Chrome, Safari or Firefox ≥ 6. ' +\n",
       "              'Firefox 4 and 5 are also supported but you ' +\n",
       "              'have to enable WebSockets in about:config.');\n",
       "    };\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure = function(figure_id, websocket, ondownload, parent_element) {\n",
       "    this.id = figure_id;\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.ws = websocket;\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.supports_binary = (this.ws.binaryType != undefined);\n",
       "\n",
       "    if (!this.supports_binary) {\n",
       "        var warnings = document.getElementById(\"mpl-warnings\");\n",
       "        if (warnings) {\n",
       "            warnings.style.display = 'block';\n",
       "            warnings.textContent = (\n",
       "                \"This browser does not support binary websocket messages. \" +\n",
       "                    \"Performance may be slow.\");\n",
       "        }\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.imageObj = new Image();\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.context = undefined;\n",
       "    this.message = undefined;\n",
       "    this.canvas = undefined;\n",
       "    this.rubberband_canvas = undefined;\n",
       "    this.rubberband_context = undefined;\n",
       "    this.format_dropdown = undefined;\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.image_mode = 'full';\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.root = $('<div/>');\n",
       "    this._root_extra_style(this.root)\n",
       "    this.root.attr('style', 'display: inline-block');\n",
       "\n",
       "    $(parent_element).append(this.root);\n",
       "\n",
       "    this._init_header(this);\n",
       "    this._init_canvas(this);\n",
       "    this._init_toolbar(this);\n",
       "\n",
       "    var fig = this;\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.waiting = false;\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.ws.onopen =  function () {\n",
       "            fig.send_message(\"supports_binary\", {value: fig.supports_binary});\n",
       "            fig.send_message(\"send_image_mode\", {});\n",
       "            if (mpl.ratio != 1) {\n",
       "                fig.send_message(\"set_dpi_ratio\", {'dpi_ratio': mpl.ratio});\n",
       "            }\n",
       "            fig.send_message(\"refresh\", {});\n",
       "        }\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.imageObj.onload = function() {\n",
       "            if (fig.image_mode == 'full') {\n",
       "                // Full images could contain transparency (where diff images\n",
       "                // almost always do), so we need to clear the canvas so that\n",
       "                // there is no ghosting.\n",
       "                fig.context.clearRect(0, 0, fig.canvas.width, fig.canvas.height);\n",
       "            }\n",
       "            fig.context.drawImage(fig.imageObj, 0, 0);\n",
       "        };\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.imageObj.onunload = function() {\n",
       "        fig.ws.close();\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.ws.onmessage = this._make_on_message_function(this);\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.ondownload = ondownload;\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._init_header = function() {\n",
       "    var titlebar = $(\n",
       "        '<div class=\"ui-dialog-titlebar ui-widget-header ui-corner-all ' +\n",
       "        'ui-helper-clearfix\"/>');\n",
       "    var titletext = $(\n",
       "        '<div class=\"ui-dialog-title\" style=\"width: 100%; ' +\n",
       "        'text-align: center; padding: 3px;\"/>');\n",
       "    titlebar.append(titletext)\n",
       "    this.root.append(titlebar);\n",
       "    this.header = titletext[0];\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._canvas_extra_style = function(canvas_div) {\n",
       "\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._root_extra_style = function(canvas_div) {\n",
       "\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._init_canvas = function() {\n",
       "    var fig = this;\n",
       "\n",
       "    var canvas_div = $('<div/>');\n",
       "\n",
       "    canvas_div.attr('style', 'position: relative; clear: both; outline: 0');\n",
       "\n",
       "    function canvas_keyboard_event(event) {\n",
       "        return fig.key_event(event, event['data']);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    canvas_div.keydown('key_press', canvas_keyboard_event);\n",
       "    canvas_div.keyup('key_release', canvas_keyboard_event);\n",
       "    this.canvas_div = canvas_div\n",
       "    this._canvas_extra_style(canvas_div)\n",
       "    this.root.append(canvas_div);\n",
       "\n",
       "    var canvas = $('<canvas/>');\n",
       "    canvas.addClass('mpl-canvas');\n",
       "    canvas.attr('style', \"left: 0; top: 0; z-index: 0; outline: 0\")\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.canvas = canvas[0];\n",
       "    this.context = canvas[0].getContext(\"2d\");\n",
       "\n",
       "    var backingStore = this.context.backingStorePixelRatio ||\n",
       "\tthis.context.webkitBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n",
       "\tthis.context.mozBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n",
       "\tthis.context.msBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n",
       "\tthis.context.oBackingStorePixelRatio ||\n",
       "\tthis.context.backingStorePixelRatio || 1;\n",
       "\n",
       "    mpl.ratio = (window.devicePixelRatio || 1) / backingStore;\n",
       "\n",
       "    var rubberband = $('<canvas/>');\n",
       "    rubberband.attr('style', \"position: absolute; left: 0; top: 0; z-index: 1;\")\n",
       "\n",
       "    var pass_mouse_events = true;\n",
       "\n",
       "    canvas_div.resizable({\n",
       "        start: function(event, ui) {\n",
       "            pass_mouse_events = false;\n",
       "        },\n",
       "        resize: function(event, ui) {\n",
       "            fig.request_resize(ui.size.width, ui.size.height);\n",
       "        },\n",
       "        stop: function(event, ui) {\n",
       "            pass_mouse_events = true;\n",
       "            fig.request_resize(ui.size.width, ui.size.height);\n",
       "        },\n",
       "    });\n",
       "\n",
       "    function mouse_event_fn(event) {\n",
       "        if (pass_mouse_events)\n",
       "            return fig.mouse_event(event, event['data']);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    rubberband.mousedown('button_press', mouse_event_fn);\n",
       "    rubberband.mouseup('button_release', mouse_event_fn);\n",
       "    // Throttle sequential mouse events to 1 every 20ms.\n",
       "    rubberband.mousemove('motion_notify', mouse_event_fn);\n",
       "\n",
       "    rubberband.mouseenter('figure_enter', mouse_event_fn);\n",
       "    rubberband.mouseleave('figure_leave', mouse_event_fn);\n",
       "\n",
       "    canvas_div.on(\"wheel\", function (event) {\n",
       "        event = event.originalEvent;\n",
       "        event['data'] = 'scroll'\n",
       "        if (event.deltaY < 0) {\n",
       "            event.step = 1;\n",
       "        } else {\n",
       "            event.step = -1;\n",
       "        }\n",
       "        mouse_event_fn(event);\n",
       "    });\n",
       "\n",
       "    canvas_div.append(canvas);\n",
       "    canvas_div.append(rubberband);\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.rubberband = rubberband;\n",
       "    this.rubberband_canvas = rubberband[0];\n",
       "    this.rubberband_context = rubberband[0].getContext(\"2d\");\n",
       "    this.rubberband_context.strokeStyle = \"#000000\";\n",
       "\n",
       "    this._resize_canvas = function(width, height) {\n",
       "        // Keep the size of the canvas, canvas container, and rubber band\n",
       "        // canvas in synch.\n",
       "        canvas_div.css('width', width)\n",
       "        canvas_div.css('height', height)\n",
       "\n",
       "        canvas.attr('width', width * mpl.ratio);\n",
       "        canvas.attr('height', height * mpl.ratio);\n",
       "        canvas.attr('style', 'width: ' + width + 'px; height: ' + height + 'px;');\n",
       "\n",
       "        rubberband.attr('width', width);\n",
       "        rubberband.attr('height', height);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Set the figure to an initial 600x600px, this will subsequently be updated\n",
       "    // upon first draw.\n",
       "    this._resize_canvas(600, 600);\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Disable right mouse context menu.\n",
       "    $(this.rubberband_canvas).bind(\"contextmenu\",function(e){\n",
       "        return false;\n",
       "    });\n",
       "\n",
       "    function set_focus () {\n",
       "        canvas.focus();\n",
       "        canvas_div.focus();\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    window.setTimeout(set_focus, 100);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._init_toolbar = function() {\n",
       "    var fig = this;\n",
       "\n",
       "    var nav_element = $('<div/>')\n",
       "    nav_element.attr('style', 'width: 100%');\n",
       "    this.root.append(nav_element);\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Define a callback function for later on.\n",
       "    function toolbar_event(event) {\n",
       "        return fig.toolbar_button_onclick(event['data']);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    function toolbar_mouse_event(event) {\n",
       "        return fig.toolbar_button_onmouseover(event['data']);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    for(var toolbar_ind in mpl.toolbar_items) {\n",
       "        var name = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][0];\n",
       "        var tooltip = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][1];\n",
       "        var image = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][2];\n",
       "        var method_name = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][3];\n",
       "\n",
       "        if (!name) {\n",
       "            // put a spacer in here.\n",
       "            continue;\n",
       "        }\n",
       "        var button = $('<button/>');\n",
       "        button.addClass('ui-button ui-widget ui-state-default ui-corner-all ' +\n",
       "                        'ui-button-icon-only');\n",
       "        button.attr('role', 'button');\n",
       "        button.attr('aria-disabled', 'false');\n",
       "        button.click(method_name, toolbar_event);\n",
       "        button.mouseover(tooltip, toolbar_mouse_event);\n",
       "\n",
       "        var icon_img = $('<span/>');\n",
       "        icon_img.addClass('ui-button-icon-primary ui-icon');\n",
       "        icon_img.addClass(image);\n",
       "        icon_img.addClass('ui-corner-all');\n",
       "\n",
       "        var tooltip_span = $('<span/>');\n",
       "        tooltip_span.addClass('ui-button-text');\n",
       "        tooltip_span.html(tooltip);\n",
       "\n",
       "        button.append(icon_img);\n",
       "        button.append(tooltip_span);\n",
       "\n",
       "        nav_element.append(button);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    var fmt_picker_span = $('<span/>');\n",
       "\n",
       "    var fmt_picker = $('<select/>');\n",
       "    fmt_picker.addClass('mpl-toolbar-option ui-widget ui-widget-content');\n",
       "    fmt_picker_span.append(fmt_picker);\n",
       "    nav_element.append(fmt_picker_span);\n",
       "    this.format_dropdown = fmt_picker[0];\n",
       "\n",
       "    for (var ind in mpl.extensions) {\n",
       "        var fmt = mpl.extensions[ind];\n",
       "        var option = $(\n",
       "            '<option/>', {selected: fmt === mpl.default_extension}).html(fmt);\n",
       "        fmt_picker.append(option)\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Add hover states to the ui-buttons\n",
       "    $( \".ui-button\" ).hover(\n",
       "        function() { $(this).addClass(\"ui-state-hover\");},\n",
       "        function() { $(this).removeClass(\"ui-state-hover\");}\n",
       "    );\n",
       "\n",
       "    var status_bar = $('<span class=\"mpl-message\"/>');\n",
       "    nav_element.append(status_bar);\n",
       "    this.message = status_bar[0];\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.request_resize = function(x_pixels, y_pixels) {\n",
       "    // Request matplotlib to resize the figure. Matplotlib will then trigger a resize in the client,\n",
       "    // which will in turn request a refresh of the image.\n",
       "    this.send_message('resize', {'width': x_pixels, 'height': y_pixels});\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.send_message = function(type, properties) {\n",
       "    properties['type'] = type;\n",
       "    properties['figure_id'] = this.id;\n",
       "    this.ws.send(JSON.stringify(properties));\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.send_draw_message = function() {\n",
       "    if (!this.waiting) {\n",
       "        this.waiting = true;\n",
       "        this.ws.send(JSON.stringify({type: \"draw\", figure_id: this.id}));\n",
       "    }\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_save = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    var format_dropdown = fig.format_dropdown;\n",
       "    var format = format_dropdown.options[format_dropdown.selectedIndex].value;\n",
       "    fig.ondownload(fig, format);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_resize = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    var size = msg['size'];\n",
       "    if (size[0] != fig.canvas.width || size[1] != fig.canvas.height) {\n",
       "        fig._resize_canvas(size[0], size[1]);\n",
       "        fig.send_message(\"refresh\", {});\n",
       "    };\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_rubberband = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    var x0 = msg['x0'] / mpl.ratio;\n",
       "    var y0 = (fig.canvas.height - msg['y0']) / mpl.ratio;\n",
       "    var x1 = msg['x1'] / mpl.ratio;\n",
       "    var y1 = (fig.canvas.height - msg['y1']) / mpl.ratio;\n",
       "    x0 = Math.floor(x0) + 0.5;\n",
       "    y0 = Math.floor(y0) + 0.5;\n",
       "    x1 = Math.floor(x1) + 0.5;\n",
       "    y1 = Math.floor(y1) + 0.5;\n",
       "    var min_x = Math.min(x0, x1);\n",
       "    var min_y = Math.min(y0, y1);\n",
       "    var width = Math.abs(x1 - x0);\n",
       "    var height = Math.abs(y1 - y0);\n",
       "\n",
       "    fig.rubberband_context.clearRect(\n",
       "        0, 0, fig.canvas.width, fig.canvas.height);\n",
       "\n",
       "    fig.rubberband_context.strokeRect(min_x, min_y, width, height);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_figure_label = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    // Updates the figure title.\n",
       "    fig.header.textContent = msg['label'];\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_cursor = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    var cursor = msg['cursor'];\n",
       "    switch(cursor)\n",
       "    {\n",
       "    case 0:\n",
       "        cursor = 'pointer';\n",
       "        break;\n",
       "    case 1:\n",
       "        cursor = 'default';\n",
       "        break;\n",
       "    case 2:\n",
       "        cursor = 'crosshair';\n",
       "        break;\n",
       "    case 3:\n",
       "        cursor = 'move';\n",
       "        break;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    fig.rubberband_canvas.style.cursor = cursor;\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_message = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    fig.message.textContent = msg['message'];\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_draw = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    // Request the server to send over a new figure.\n",
       "    fig.send_draw_message();\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_image_mode = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    fig.image_mode = msg['mode'];\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.updated_canvas_event = function() {\n",
       "    // Called whenever the canvas gets updated.\n",
       "    this.send_message(\"ack\", {});\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "// A function to construct a web socket function for onmessage handling.\n",
       "// Called in the figure constructor.\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._make_on_message_function = function(fig) {\n",
       "    return function socket_on_message(evt) {\n",
       "        if (evt.data instanceof Blob) {\n",
       "            /* FIXME: We get \"Resource interpreted as Image but\n",
       "             * transferred with MIME type text/plain:\" errors on\n",
       "             * Chrome.  But how to set the MIME type?  It doesn't seem\n",
       "             * to be part of the websocket stream */\n",
       "            evt.data.type = \"image/png\";\n",
       "\n",
       "            /* Free the memory for the previous frames */\n",
       "            if (fig.imageObj.src) {\n",
       "                (window.URL || window.webkitURL).revokeObjectURL(\n",
       "                    fig.imageObj.src);\n",
       "            }\n",
       "\n",
       "            fig.imageObj.src = (window.URL || window.webkitURL).createObjectURL(\n",
       "                evt.data);\n",
       "            fig.updated_canvas_event();\n",
       "            fig.waiting = false;\n",
       "            return;\n",
       "        }\n",
       "        else if (typeof evt.data === 'string' && evt.data.slice(0, 21) == \"data:image/png;base64\") {\n",
       "            fig.imageObj.src = evt.data;\n",
       "            fig.updated_canvas_event();\n",
       "            fig.waiting = false;\n",
       "            return;\n",
       "        }\n",
       "\n",
       "        var msg = JSON.parse(evt.data);\n",
       "        var msg_type = msg['type'];\n",
       "\n",
       "        // Call the  \"handle_{type}\" callback, which takes\n",
       "        // the figure and JSON message as its only arguments.\n",
       "        try {\n",
       "            var callback = fig[\"handle_\" + msg_type];\n",
       "        } catch (e) {\n",
       "            console.log(\"No handler for the '\" + msg_type + \"' message type: \", msg);\n",
       "            return;\n",
       "        }\n",
       "\n",
       "        if (callback) {\n",
       "            try {\n",
       "                // console.log(\"Handling '\" + msg_type + \"' message: \", msg);\n",
       "                callback(fig, msg);\n",
       "            } catch (e) {\n",
       "                console.log(\"Exception inside the 'handler_\" + msg_type + \"' callback:\", e, e.stack, msg);\n",
       "            }\n",
       "        }\n",
       "    };\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "// from http://stackoverflow.com/questions/1114465/getting-mouse-location-in-canvas\n",
       "mpl.findpos = function(e) {\n",
       "    //this section is from http://www.quirksmode.org/js/events_properties.html\n",
       "    var targ;\n",
       "    if (!e)\n",
       "        e = window.event;\n",
       "    if (e.target)\n",
       "        targ = e.target;\n",
       "    else if (e.srcElement)\n",
       "        targ = e.srcElement;\n",
       "    if (targ.nodeType == 3) // defeat Safari bug\n",
       "        targ = targ.parentNode;\n",
       "\n",
       "    // jQuery normalizes the pageX and pageY\n",
       "    // pageX,Y are the mouse positions relative to the document\n",
       "    // offset() returns the position of the element relative to the document\n",
       "    var x = e.pageX - $(targ).offset().left;\n",
       "    var y = e.pageY - $(targ).offset().top;\n",
       "\n",
       "    return {\"x\": x, \"y\": y};\n",
       "};\n",
       "\n",
       "/*\n",
       " * return a copy of an object with only non-object keys\n",
       " * we need this to avoid circular references\n",
       " * http://stackoverflow.com/a/24161582/3208463\n",
       " */\n",
       "function simpleKeys (original) {\n",
       "  return Object.keys(original).reduce(function (obj, key) {\n",
       "    if (typeof original[key] !== 'object')\n",
       "        obj[key] = original[key]\n",
       "    return obj;\n",
       "  }, {});\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.mouse_event = function(event, name) {\n",
       "    var canvas_pos = mpl.findpos(event)\n",
       "\n",
       "    if (name === 'button_press')\n",
       "    {\n",
       "        this.canvas.focus();\n",
       "        this.canvas_div.focus();\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    var x = canvas_pos.x * mpl.ratio;\n",
       "    var y = canvas_pos.y * mpl.ratio;\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.send_message(name, {x: x, y: y, button: event.button,\n",
       "                             step: event.step,\n",
       "                             guiEvent: simpleKeys(event)});\n",
       "\n",
       "    /* This prevents the web browser from automatically changing to\n",
       "     * the text insertion cursor when the button is pressed.  We want\n",
       "     * to control all of the cursor setting manually through the\n",
       "     * 'cursor' event from matplotlib */\n",
       "    event.preventDefault();\n",
       "    return false;\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._key_event_extra = function(event, name) {\n",
       "    // Handle any extra behaviour associated with a key event\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.key_event = function(event, name) {\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Prevent repeat events\n",
       "    if (name == 'key_press')\n",
       "    {\n",
       "        if (event.which === this._key)\n",
       "            return;\n",
       "        else\n",
       "            this._key = event.which;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    if (name == 'key_release')\n",
       "        this._key = null;\n",
       "\n",
       "    var value = '';\n",
       "    if (event.ctrlKey && event.which != 17)\n",
       "        value += \"ctrl+\";\n",
       "    if (event.altKey && event.which != 18)\n",
       "        value += \"alt+\";\n",
       "    if (event.shiftKey && event.which != 16)\n",
       "        value += \"shift+\";\n",
       "\n",
       "    value += 'k';\n",
       "    value += event.which.toString();\n",
       "\n",
       "    this._key_event_extra(event, name);\n",
       "\n",
       "    this.send_message(name, {key: value,\n",
       "                             guiEvent: simpleKeys(event)});\n",
       "    return false;\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.toolbar_button_onclick = function(name) {\n",
       "    if (name == 'download') {\n",
       "        this.handle_save(this, null);\n",
       "    } else {\n",
       "        this.send_message(\"toolbar_button\", {name: name});\n",
       "    }\n",
       "};\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.toolbar_button_onmouseover = function(tooltip) {\n",
       "    this.message.textContent = tooltip;\n",
       "};\n",
       "mpl.toolbar_items = [[\"Home\", \"Reset original view\", \"fa fa-home icon-home\", \"home\"], [\"Back\", \"Back to  previous view\", \"fa fa-arrow-left icon-arrow-left\", \"back\"], [\"Forward\", \"Forward to next view\", \"fa fa-arrow-right icon-arrow-right\", \"forward\"], [\"\", \"\", \"\", \"\"], [\"Pan\", \"Pan axes with left mouse, zoom with right\", \"fa fa-arrows icon-move\", \"pan\"], [\"Zoom\", \"Zoom to rectangle\", \"fa fa-square-o icon-check-empty\", \"zoom\"], [\"\", \"\", \"\", \"\"], [\"Download\", \"Download plot\", \"fa fa-floppy-o icon-save\", \"download\"]];\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.extensions = [\"eps\", \"jpeg\", \"pdf\", \"png\", \"ps\", \"raw\", \"svg\", \"tif\"];\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.default_extension = \"png\";var comm_websocket_adapter = function(comm) {\n",
       "    // Create a \"websocket\"-like object which calls the given IPython comm\n",
       "    // object with the appropriate methods. Currently this is a non binary\n",
       "    // socket, so there is still some room for performance tuning.\n",
       "    var ws = {};\n",
       "\n",
       "    ws.close = function() {\n",
       "        comm.close()\n",
       "    };\n",
       "    ws.send = function(m) {\n",
       "        //console.log('sending', m);\n",
       "        comm.send(m);\n",
       "    };\n",
       "    // Register the callback with on_msg.\n",
       "    comm.on_msg(function(msg) {\n",
       "        //console.log('receiving', msg['content']['data'], msg);\n",
       "        // Pass the mpl event to the overriden (by mpl) onmessage function.\n",
       "        ws.onmessage(msg['content']['data'])\n",
       "    });\n",
       "    return ws;\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.mpl_figure_comm = function(comm, msg) {\n",
       "    // This is the function which gets called when the mpl process\n",
       "    // starts-up an IPython Comm through the \"matplotlib\" channel.\n",
       "\n",
       "    var id = msg.content.data.id;\n",
       "    // Get hold of the div created by the display call when the Comm\n",
       "    // socket was opened in Python.\n",
       "    var element = $(\"#\" + id);\n",
       "    var ws_proxy = comm_websocket_adapter(comm)\n",
       "\n",
       "    function ondownload(figure, format) {\n",
       "        window.open(figure.imageObj.src);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    var fig = new mpl.figure(id, ws_proxy,\n",
       "                           ondownload,\n",
       "                           element.get(0));\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Call onopen now - mpl needs it, as it is assuming we've passed it a real\n",
       "    // web socket which is closed, not our websocket->open comm proxy.\n",
       "    ws_proxy.onopen();\n",
       "\n",
       "    fig.parent_element = element.get(0);\n",
       "    fig.cell_info = mpl.find_output_cell(\"<div id='\" + id + \"'></div>\");\n",
       "    if (!fig.cell_info) {\n",
       "        console.error(\"Failed to find cell for figure\", id, fig);\n",
       "        return;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    var output_index = fig.cell_info[2]\n",
       "    var cell = fig.cell_info[0];\n",
       "\n",
       "};\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_close = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    var width = fig.canvas.width/mpl.ratio\n",
       "    fig.root.unbind('remove')\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Update the output cell to use the data from the current canvas.\n",
       "    fig.push_to_output();\n",
       "    var dataURL = fig.canvas.toDataURL();\n",
       "    // Re-enable the keyboard manager in IPython - without this line, in FF,\n",
       "    // the notebook keyboard shortcuts fail.\n",
       "    IPython.keyboard_manager.enable()\n",
       "    $(fig.parent_element).html('<img src=\"' + dataURL + '\" width=\"' + width + '\">');\n",
       "    fig.close_ws(fig, msg);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.close_ws = function(fig, msg){\n",
       "    fig.send_message('closing', msg);\n",
       "    // fig.ws.close()\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.push_to_output = function(remove_interactive) {\n",
       "    // Turn the data on the canvas into data in the output cell.\n",
       "    var width = this.canvas.width/mpl.ratio\n",
       "    var dataURL = this.canvas.toDataURL();\n",
       "    this.cell_info[1]['text/html'] = '<img src=\"' + dataURL + '\" width=\"' + width + '\">';\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.updated_canvas_event = function() {\n",
       "    // Tell IPython that the notebook contents must change.\n",
       "    IPython.notebook.set_dirty(true);\n",
       "    this.send_message(\"ack\", {});\n",
       "    var fig = this;\n",
       "    // Wait a second, then push the new image to the DOM so\n",
       "    // that it is saved nicely (might be nice to debounce this).\n",
       "    setTimeout(function () { fig.push_to_output() }, 1000);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._init_toolbar = function() {\n",
       "    var fig = this;\n",
       "\n",
       "    var nav_element = $('<div/>')\n",
       "    nav_element.attr('style', 'width: 100%');\n",
       "    this.root.append(nav_element);\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Define a callback function for later on.\n",
       "    function toolbar_event(event) {\n",
       "        return fig.toolbar_button_onclick(event['data']);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    function toolbar_mouse_event(event) {\n",
       "        return fig.toolbar_button_onmouseover(event['data']);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    for(var toolbar_ind in mpl.toolbar_items){\n",
       "        var name = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][0];\n",
       "        var tooltip = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][1];\n",
       "        var image = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][2];\n",
       "        var method_name = mpl.toolbar_items[toolbar_ind][3];\n",
       "\n",
       "        if (!name) { continue; };\n",
       "\n",
       "        var button = $('<button class=\"btn btn-default\" href=\"#\" title=\"' + name + '\"><i class=\"fa ' + image + ' fa-lg\"></i></button>');\n",
       "        button.click(method_name, toolbar_event);\n",
       "        button.mouseover(tooltip, toolbar_mouse_event);\n",
       "        nav_element.append(button);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Add the status bar.\n",
       "    var status_bar = $('<span class=\"mpl-message\" style=\"text-align:right; float: right;\"/>');\n",
       "    nav_element.append(status_bar);\n",
       "    this.message = status_bar[0];\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Add the close button to the window.\n",
       "    var buttongrp = $('<div class=\"btn-group inline pull-right\"></div>');\n",
       "    var button = $('<button class=\"btn btn-mini btn-primary\" href=\"#\" title=\"Stop Interaction\"><i class=\"fa fa-power-off icon-remove icon-large\"></i></button>');\n",
       "    button.click(function (evt) { fig.handle_close(fig, {}); } );\n",
       "    button.mouseover('Stop Interaction', toolbar_mouse_event);\n",
       "    buttongrp.append(button);\n",
       "    var titlebar = this.root.find($('.ui-dialog-titlebar'));\n",
       "    titlebar.prepend(buttongrp);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._root_extra_style = function(el){\n",
       "    var fig = this\n",
       "    el.on(\"remove\", function(){\n",
       "\tfig.close_ws(fig, {});\n",
       "    });\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._canvas_extra_style = function(el){\n",
       "    // this is important to make the div 'focusable\n",
       "    el.attr('tabindex', 0)\n",
       "    // reach out to IPython and tell the keyboard manager to turn it's self\n",
       "    // off when our div gets focus\n",
       "\n",
       "    // location in version 3\n",
       "    if (IPython.notebook.keyboard_manager) {\n",
       "        IPython.notebook.keyboard_manager.register_events(el);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "    else {\n",
       "        // location in version 2\n",
       "        IPython.keyboard_manager.register_events(el);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype._key_event_extra = function(event, name) {\n",
       "    var manager = IPython.notebook.keyboard_manager;\n",
       "    if (!manager)\n",
       "        manager = IPython.keyboard_manager;\n",
       "\n",
       "    // Check for shift+enter\n",
       "    if (event.shiftKey && event.which == 13) {\n",
       "        this.canvas_div.blur();\n",
       "        event.shiftKey = false;\n",
       "        // Send a \"J\" for go to next cell\n",
       "        event.which = 74;\n",
       "        event.keyCode = 74;\n",
       "        manager.command_mode();\n",
       "        manager.handle_keydown(event);\n",
       "    }\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.figure.prototype.handle_save = function(fig, msg) {\n",
       "    fig.ondownload(fig, null);\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "\n",
       "mpl.find_output_cell = function(html_output) {\n",
       "    // Return the cell and output element which can be found *uniquely* in the notebook.\n",
       "    // Note - this is a bit hacky, but it is done because the \"notebook_saving.Notebook\"\n",
       "    // IPython event is triggered only after the cells have been serialised, which for\n",
       "    // our purposes (turning an active figure into a static one), is too late.\n",
       "    var cells = IPython.notebook.get_cells();\n",
       "    var ncells = cells.length;\n",
       "    for (var i=0; i<ncells; i++) {\n",
       "        var cell = cells[i];\n",
       "        if (cell.cell_type === 'code'){\n",
       "            for (var j=0; j<cell.output_area.outputs.length; j++) {\n",
       "                var data = cell.output_area.outputs[j];\n",
       "                if (data.data) {\n",
       "                    // IPython >= 3 moved mimebundle to data attribute of output\n",
       "                    data = data.data;\n",
       "                }\n",
       "                if (data['text/html'] == html_output) {\n",
       "                    return [cell, data, j];\n",
       "                }\n",
       "            }\n",
       "        }\n",
       "    }\n",
       "}\n",
       "\n",
       "// Register the function which deals with the matplotlib target/channel.\n",
       "// The kernel may be null if the page has been refreshed.\n",
       "if (IPython.notebook.kernel != null) {\n",
       "    IPython.notebook.kernel.comm_manager.register_target('matplotlib', mpl.mpl_figure_comm);\n",
       "}\n"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "<IPython.core.display.Javascript object>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<img src=\"data:image/png;base64,[encoded data, 120156 characters]\" width=\"990\">"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "<IPython.core.display.HTML object>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "plt.plot(y_test[2000:3000], 'o')\n",
    "plt.plot(y_pred[2000:3000])\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 43,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "MAE: 12.83728994311115\n",
      "MSE: 392.0666160845265\n",
      "RMSE: 19.800672111939193\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mae = mean_absolute_error(y_test, y_pred)\n",
    "mse = mean_squared_error(y_test, y_pred)\n",
    "print(\"MAE: {}\".format(mae))\n",
    "print(\"MSE: {}\".format(mse))\n",
    "print(\"RMSE: {}\".format(np.sqrt(mse)))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Pipeline Dump for future use in API"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 44,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "pickle.dump(rgs, open(\"lbrprice_model_rgs.pkl\",\"wb\"))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
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   "base_numbering": 1,
   "nav_menu": {},
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   "title_cell": "Table of Contents",
   "title_sidebar": "Contents",
   "toc_cell": false,
   "toc_position": {},
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